The Sydney housing supply forecast is the best available NSW government information on where, when and how many new homes are likely to be built in the Sydney area in the next 5 years.
We update the housing supply forecast each year to inform governments, industry and the public about potential future housing supply. It applies generally to private dwellings in the form of detached housing, medium-density housing and apartments.
The forecast is critical for making strategic planning decisions both inside and outside government, as well as for monitoring expected housing supply in relation to underlying housing demand.
The forecast is based on dwelling completions. It does not indicate underlying housing demand.
How to view the latest forecast
The Sydney Housing Supply forecast is visually summarised on the Greater Sydney Urban Development Program dashboard.
The 2022 forecast is available to download at the following levels:
- city
- local government area
- suburb
- ASGS 2021 Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2)
- greenfield precinct level.
How many new homes are likely to be built
- Between 119,400 and 138,550 new homes could be built over the next 5 years (2022–23 to 2026–27) – the range is based on 3 different forecast scenarios.
- Although lower than previous years, the averaged 5-year forecast is in line with implied demand for the next 5 years.
- COVID-19 has been an unprecedented disruptive force, but population growth is picking up again for both Sydney and NSW. This means demand for housing will also continue to grow and we need to plan for the homes demanded by a growing and aging population.
What has happened in housing construction
Nearly 171,500 new homes were built over the 5 years 2017–18 to 2021–22. This covers a period of record high home construction in 2017–18 and 2018–19, which delivered more than 42,000 homes each year.
Since 2019, the housing market has slowed on the back of falling building approvals and completions. In 2021–22, only 24,600 new homes were built. The detached housing market experienced some stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic on the back of record low interest rates, changing housing preferences and government stimulus, but the apartment market has continued to decline.
In 2021–22, the housing construction market has suffered from supply change issues and shortages in labour, skills and building materials. Combined with sharply rising interest rates, falling house prices and falling building approvals, the result is a lower forecast range this year.