The NSW Government produces population projections every 2 to 3 years. These regular updates ensure the projections reflect the latest information about population trends in NSW.
The projections help government agencies, local government, business and not-for-profit groups plan for services and infrastructure such as housing, schools, hospitals, transport and community services.
The projections are not NSW Government targets
The projections show the likely effect on our population if the assumptions hold true. For example, if life expectancy continues to improve, the number of older people will continue to increase over time. The projections are not predictions or targets.
The projections are based on assumptions by demographers that consider recent and current trends for births, deaths and migration.
Our method
The starting point for the 2024 NSW population projections is the estimated resident population on 30 June 2021, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This is different to the population counted on Census night (9 August 2021), although that data is used as the basis to calculate the estimated resident population.
We use the estimated resident population because it corrects any over-counting or under-counting in the Census and is considered the official population measure for an area.
We generate the projections using a combination of methods. They are based on methods used worldwide by national statistical agencies to produce official projections. For more details, read the methods and assumptions report (PDF, 910 KB).
This is an update of the 2022 NSW population projections. The 2024 projections consider updated data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (including the 2021 Census), up-to-date data about housing completions across regional NSW, and the latest Sydney Housing Supply Forecast.
Projections are available by state, local government area and small area (Statistical Area 2) geographies.
The projections are for the 20-year period from July 2021 to June 2041.
There are no specific projections for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations in this data.
Aboriginal Affairs NSW has recently published the 2024 Aboriginal population projections.
Implications for housing and infrastructure
The NSW population projections illustrate what the population will look like if certain circumstances happen in the future.
The housing targets are 5-year targets for housing supply that have been set to address the housing shortfall in NSW. The 5-year targets respond to the NSW Government's commitment under the National Housing Accord to deliver 377,000 new well-located homes across the state by 2029.
The 2024 projections for NSW include assumptions about how the population will be distributed across the state, based on housing activity. We used the Sydney Housing Supply Forecast 2023 in our model to adjust for people moving to areas where new housing is planned.
For regional NSW, the projections include assumptions about how the population will be distributed, based on historical trends and significant planned housing estates.
The housing targets are for 377,000 new homes over 5 years. This target responds to our growing population, as well the historical undersupply of diverse and well-located homes that has contributed to the housing crisis in NSW.
'Implied dwelling demand' means the estimated number of homes that the projected population in a specific area will need. It is based on the number of people and their ages, as well as their likely living arrangements (for example, couples with children or people living alone).
These projections are not housing targets, projections of how many homes will be built in the future or a forecast of housing supply. They make no assumptions about the existing over- or under-supply of housing, or its affordability or suitability for households.
Increased population in the future will require more housing. In addition, more housing in needed to improve diversity and affordability of the existing housing stock.
The NSW has announced the Transport Oriented Development Program and the low- and mid-rise program to deliver more diverse housing in well-located areas.
Improving housing supply requires the coordination of multiple processes and stakeholders. The NSW Government has established the Urban Development Program to help address housing supply and improve infrastructure delivery and coordination. It does this by bringing together stakeholders from industry, local and state governments, and utility providers.
Urban development program committees analyse evidence on housing demand, land supply and constraints to delivery. They are a forum to prioritise growth. They facilitate improved infrastructure coordination and delivery of land that is ready for development. For more information go to Urban Development Program.
Changes from 2022 projections
The 2024 projections show a larger NSW population of 10.07 million by 2041 compared to the 2022 projections of 9.9 million.
The regional NSW population is projected to be 3.8 million, based on assumptions for the 2024 projections compared to 3.7 million in the 2022 projections.
The main driver of the changes has been the effect of COVID-19 on net overseas migration to NSW. We produced the 2022 projections when Australia's borders were closed and there was uncertainty about when they would reopen.
The Australian Government removed restrictions on international travel earlier than predicted, and recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics has shown the volume of people who then migrated to Australia was much larger than expected.
The 2024 projections also reflect recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data showing more people leaving NSW for other states and territories and more deaths than usual in the short term.
The 2024 projections start with the final estimated resident population of 30 June 2021, while the 2022 projections started with the preliminary estimated resident population as of 30 June 2020.
Consultation with councils and other stakeholders working across the regions has also informed a review of migration assumptions in some areas.
Local government areas projected to have falling populations are small and have a large proportion of older people. When a large proportion of the population is projected to be aged 65 or over, natural decline can happen because there are likely to be more deaths than births.
In regional NSW, declining populations also result from young people moving to larger cities and centres. Many local government areas with declining populations are carrying out policies to keep residents and attract new ones.
In October 2024, new births statistics showed fertility rates at an historic low. The projections assume that fertility will remain very low, but not at that level. We do not yet know if this is a one-time event, or the start of a new trend.
In NSW, we have a large population of women of the right age to have children. Even though the birth rate in 2023 was well below expectations, almost 92,000 babies were born to NSW women. The number of children born each year in NSW has been over 90,000 for 2 decades.