We produce population projections for all of NSW. The projections let us see the future growth and change in population if trends in births, deaths, and migration happen as we expect in 2024.
We have updated these projections for the period to June 2041 including:
- how many people are likely to be living in NSW
- how old they are likely to be.
These are not population targets. Instead, the population projections are a set of Common Planning Assumptions that the NSW Government and others use to plan services and infrastructure.
The NSW population is always changing. So, we review the population projections regularly to account for policy reforms that will affect future population trends, and unforeseen events.
Population growth
Projected NSW population in 2041
Projected population increase for NSW over 20 years
NSW population projections are used for a variety of planning decisions. By understanding how the population might change in the future, governments and businesses can make informed decisions about things like:
- Infrastructure: How many schools, hospitals, and roads, and public open space will NSW need?
- Housing: Where will people live? What housing types do we need?
- Social services: What kind of support will people need at different times in their lives?
The latest 2024 Population Projections are for the financial years 2022 to 2041.
The projections use data from the 2021 Census of Population and Housing. We consult councils about local demographic trends, such as what's happening in their town centres.
Demographic experts at the Australian Bureau of Statistics and an independent demographic consultant peer-reviewed the projections.
The 2024 projections replace the 2022 ones as the NSW Common Planning Assumptions.
How we developed the projections
We develop comprehensive population projections using robust data and best-practice methods.
We model the projections from assumptions about the population based on past trends in births, deaths, and interstate and overseas migration. These are based on NSW and national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, local councils, and NSW and federal government agencies.
The NSW population projections give a projected population for NSW, by region and for each local area, by age and sex. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Estimated Resident Population in 2021 is the base for the projections. We adjust the local projections to sum to regional and state ones.
Research and consultation informs the various assumptions behind the projections. We consulted expert demographers, state agencies and local councils.
For more detail on our methods and assumptions, read the 2024 NSW Population Projections – Methods and assumptions report (PDF, 910 KB).
